Holders in Pain but Undeterred

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Price Prediction: In the Middle of a Bullish Breakout

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all moved in the same downward direction noting occasional price pumps on their short-term chart. 

Following the FTX fall, the larger market was pulled down in dwindling price action, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and most altcoins trending lower. Bitcoin price oscillated at $16,552.73 at press time, still trading near the two-year low price level. 

Ethereum and XRP followed the top crypto’s suit; However, there was a short-term price push that the two alts witnessed. Ether and XRP were up by 1.40% and 3.59%, respectively, on their weekly window. 

Bitcoin long-term holders in acute loss

The FTX conundrum pulled Bitcoin price down to the record low of $15,580, last seen in November 2020. The pullback has significantly affected network vibrancy with BTC transaction volume (7d MA) reaching a 5-month low of 33,628.568 BTC.

Bitcoin transaction volume (7d MA) | Source: Glassnode

Long-term holders (LTH) MVRV suggested that Bitcoin LTH were experiencing acute financial stress, holding an average of -33% in unrealized losses. Despite the grave losses, on-chain Exchange Flow showed that netflows were negative for BTC, with $379.1 million in daily outflows. 

Bitcoin Long-term holder MVRV | Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin Long-term holder MVRV | Source: Glassnode

The recent losses were comparable to 2018 bear market lows, which saw a peak unrealized loss of -36% on average.

Even though a BTC price had appreciated from the lower $15,580 mark and traded above $16,500 at press time, it wasn’t time to rejoice yet. 

The volume profile on BTC’s long-term chart suggested that after Bitcoin lost the $19,500 support level there wasn’t much to hold onto. Seemingly, Bitcoin has no Point of Control until the price limit of $11,800. 

Bitcoin volume profile | Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin volume profile | Source: CryptoQuant

Since there is no significant trading volume up to $11,800, BTC could extend losses till the lower mark from where a significant recovery or bounce is plausible. 

IntoTheBlock’s In/Out Of Money Around Price Indicator suggested that if the price appreciates above the $16,839 resistance mark where 1.38 million addresses hold 947,000 BTC, the same can act as solid support. 

IntoTheBlock’s In/Out Of Money Around Price
IntoTheBlock’s In/Out Of Money Around Price – Bitcoin

For now, though, there was no solid supply wall to hold Bitcoin prices up. 

Ethereum holders: still rock solid

At the time of writing, Ethereum’s price gained a mere 0.46% on the hourly window as ETH traded at $1,197.39. 

ETH losses weren’t as grave as Bitcoin and some other altcoins as Ether price held above the $1000 psychological support level. Daily on-chain exchange flow suggested that netflows were negative for ETH, with around $300.6 million outflows on Nov. 16. 

Ethereum holders also maintained a solid grasp over their wallets as most of the whale cohorts either HODLed or continued to accumulate. 

Notably, Ethereum Number of Addresses Holding 100+ Coins reached a 20-month high of 47,034, on Nov. 17. 

Ethereum Number of Addresses Holding 100+ Coins | Source: Glassnode
Ethereum Number of Addresses Holding 100+ Coins | Source: Glassnode

Data from Glassnode further highlighted that ETH Number of Addresses Holding over 10,000 coins just reached a 1-month high of 1,183

ETH Number of Addresses Holding 10,000+ coins  | Source: Glassnode
ETH Number of Addresses Holding 10,000+ coins  | Source: Glassnode

Lastly, ETH Number of Exchange Deposits (7d MA) reached a 5-year low of 303.833, which meant that not a lot ETH was being sent to exchanges despite the shaky price action. 

ETH Number of Exchange Deposits (7d MA) | Source: Glassnode
ETH Number of Exchange Deposits (7d MA) | Source: Glassnode

Going forward, if ETH price can establish above $1350 resistance, the same could act as solid support. However, a Bitcoin price pullback in near term, could further extend losses for ETH and the rest of the market.  alongside a return of whales to the scene, some relief can be expected. 

520 Billion XRP Moved

XRP price traded at $0.3715, at the time of writing, losing 2.25% on the daily chart but up by 3.59% on the weekly. 

Age consumed metric for XRP showed that over 520 Billion XRP was moved on Nov. 15 as price saw a short-term pump. 

Age consumed XRP | Source: Sanbase
Age consumed XRP | Source: Sanbase 

A lot of old XRP coins have been on the move lately, which could point toward possible redistribution. 

On positive turn was that percentage of total stablecoin supply held by whales with over $5 million saw a slight push. These whales had increased their holdings by close to 1% from the lower bounds. 

Percentage of total stablecoin supply held by whales with over $5 million | Source: Sanbase
Percentage of total stablecoin supply held by whales with over $5 million | Source: Sanbase 

Despite support from whales, XRP price still had a long way to go, especially with the ongoing regulatory battle. 

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